The Roseburg Visitors & Convention Bureau and the Southern Oregon Visitors Association are pleased to sponsor the “Building a Customer Service Experience” class for the Roseburg area businesses where visitors come in contact with frontline employees. Quality customer service is the expectation for all those individuals that greet the visitors to the community and set the first impression of the community.
There is a class time offered on Wednesday, May 5, 2010 from 2:00-4:30 pm held at the Douglas County Library. The Oregon Tourism Commission, dba Travel Oregon, established this statewide program to create an industry standard training in customer service. Working through the local destinations marketing organizations Travel Oregon expects the outcome will be an increased positive economic impact on Oregon’s tourism industry. The class will include: Customer contact skills, effective communications, how to turn a customer problem into opportunity and more.
To register for this FREE class, please call or e-mail the Roseburg Visitors Center at 541-672-9731 or vcb@visitroseburg.com and speak with Teri at ext. 15.
Part of business life is just dealing with people who are just not fun. This article from Forbes is part of their very interesting “how to” series and offers some entertaining ways to get past some of the sticky points in life. You’ll also find links afor articles suggesting how to identify people who are lying, how to deliver bad news and anger management techniques.
If you are preparing for this fall’s opening of Costco on Roseburg’s north side you may find this ABC report of interest. You won’t be surprised to find they manage costs closely or that they organize their store to maximize the amount of time and product customers are exposed to, but you will find some other interesting nuggets. If noisy ads bother you as much as they do most I’d suggest you turn off the sound before opening the link.
Retailers looking for indications of an improving situation may find it in this article from Bloomberg about the recent uptick in consumer spending signalling long-term recovery. Or this article from The Los Angeles Times that says teens are spending moree time and money at the mall this year, with spending up between 6% and 8%. The “… teen market is showing signs of life and positive growth.”
Timber Industry Report , March 26, 2010
By: Rick Sohn
The price of lumber has held, while the price of logs has increased slightly. But housing starts are down, and unsold home inventory bucked seasonal trends and rose, while mortgage rates remained very low. See four-year price analysis of lumber, logs, housing starts, permits, unsold home inventory, and mortgage rates below.
__Prices in Dollars per Thousand Board Feet___
| |
Mar ‘10 |
Feb ’10 |
Jan ‘10 |
Feb ’09 |
Feb ’07 |
Feb’ 06 |
| Southern Oregon Studs ¹ |
$280 |
$275 |
$220 |
$142 |
$247 |
$335 |
| Southern Oregon Logs² |
Not avail. |
$464 |
$440 |
$380 |
$606 |
$711 |
____ Thousands of Housing Units___
| |
Feb ’10 |
Jan ‘10 |
Feb ’09 |
Feb ’07 |
Feb’ 06 |
| US Private Housing Starts3 |
575 |
611 |
574 |
1,480 |
2,119 |
| US Private Building Permits3 |
612 |
622 |
550 |
1,598 |
2,141 |
__ Months of Inventory of Unsold Homes_
| |
Feb ’10 |
Jan ‘10 |
Feb ’09 |
Feb ’07 |
Feb’ 06 |
| Portland OR Unsold Home Inventory4 |
12.9 |
12.6 |
16.6 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
____ Percentage interest rate _
| |
Feb ’10 |
Jan ‘10 |
Feb ’09 |
Feb ’07 |
Feb’ 06 |
| 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage5 |
4.99 |
5.03 |
5.13 |
6.29 |
6.25 |
What the numbers mean.
The continuing strength of lumber prices is good news, driven by low inventories of many products. Despite the fact that log prices continue their steady climb, the affordability of logs, based on the reported numbers, is up again. As reported in January, the percentage of log price covered by the sale of 1,000 Board Foot of studs reached 50%, a very high percentage, typical of the trend of lagging log prices. This month the log price percentage reached 59%, the highest recently. Random Lengths reports that the low lumber inventory, has not only driven prices up, but has driven some substitution into other wood products at a time when orders are exceeding mill inventories for the first period in over a year.
Unfortunately, the good news in lumber prices, is offset by some bad news in unsold home inventories that affects the fundamental trend of new housing demand.
Months of Unsold Home Inventory in Portland, Oregon
| Year |
January |
February |
Difference |
| 2010 |
12.6 |
12.9 |
+0.3 |
| 2009 |
19.2 |
16.6 |
-2.6 |
| 2008 |
12.8 |
10.4 |
-2.4 |
| 2007 |
6.2 |
5.2 |
-1.0 |
| 2006 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
-0.5 |
| 2006-2009 4-year Average |
10.3 |
8.7 |
-1.6 |
The spike UP in UNSOLD home inventories in Portland from 12.6 to 12.9 months from January to February, bucks the trend of recent years. See the previous 4 years, when unsold home inventories went DOWN an average of 1.6 months from January to February.
This increased inventory may in part explain the weak housing starts and building permits. Random Lengths reports that unusually harsh winter weather also lowered seasonally adjusted housing starts. February 2006 marks the first month of the falling trend of housing starts, which continued until a turnaround in March-April, 2009
For producers, there is also a natural-disaster effect from the Chile earthquake. It not only destroyed homes but also plywood manufacturing facilities in Chile. This has opened up opportunities for increased plywood production in the Pacific Northwest, such as hiring for more shifts at Roseburg Forest Products, as has been reported.
Realtors, such as Janet Johnston in Roseburg, have seen an increase in showings lately, and daylight savings time also helps. RMLS reports that February closed sales and pending sales are up slightly since January, 2010 in Portland.
Data reports used with permission of:
1Random Lengths. 2”x4”x8’ precision end trimmed hem-fir studs from southern Oregon mills. Price reported is Dollars per Thousand Board Feet for the most recent week. One “board foot” of product measures 12 inches by 12 inches by one inch thick.
2RISI, Log Lines. Douglas-fir #2 Sawmill Log Average Region 5 price. Current report is for the prior month. Dollars per Thousand Board Feet of logs are reported using standardized log measurements from the “Scribner log table.”
3 Dept. of Commerce, US Census Bureau. New Residential Housing Starts and New Residential Construction Permits, annually adjusted. Current report is for the prior month. Recent reports are often revised in bold from the prior month.
4Regional Multiple Listing Service RMLSTM data, courtesy of Janet Johnston, Prudential Real Estate Professionals Broker, Roseburg, OR. Inventory of Unsold Homes (Ratio of Active Listings to Closed Sales) in Portland Oregon, for most recent month available.
5Freddie Mac. Primary Mortgage Market Survey. 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971, national averages. Updated weekly, current report is for the prior full month.
© Copyright Rick Sohn, #3-3 Umpqua Coquille LLC. Email rsohn@umpquacoquille.com
From: Neil Hummel, Century 21
Greetings:
Well, the National Health and Wellness Act has finally been passed by Congress and signed by the President. It is my desire that Congress will see fit to move onward and address a much more pressing issue, unemployment. As we all know, job reemployment and job creation is the backbone of this economy. When people feel secure about their jobs they will spend more and pump more money into our economy, thus we all benefit.
Speaking of jobs, Roseburg Forest Products, our largest employer in the county has announced that it has hired back many of their employees because of the demand for lumber, especially plywood. The earthquake in Chile destroyed many of their sawmills and out of this tragedy our local mills benefit. Also, they announced that their intention is to keep these workers and add more for summer help as many of their work force go on summer vacations. GOOD NEWS!
Unemployment rates in Douglas County continue to drop and are now in the 12.9% range. Even though, it is going down slowly at least it is going down. The work on Costco continues to move forward and it will employ close to 150 people once it is complete. We will know on April 1st if the State of Oregon Veteran’s home will be located on the grounds of the VA, which will mean about 300 new jobs and a $10+million payroll. Umpqua Dairy and others continue to hire and expand their market, the Cow Creek tribe is starting up an incubator center in downtown Roseburg which will be a real advantage for start up companies not begin but expand their business.
The recovery in the national housing market is at risk of collapsing, according to a March 25th AP article I just read. However, the Douglas County real estate market is bucking the national trend. As we compare February 2010 to February 2009 closed sales increased 23.9%. Pending sales grew 31.9% and new listings increased 11.2% Closed sales for February 2010 stayed about the same as they were a month ago. However, pending sales rose 18.8% (95v80). New listings decreased from a month ago by -10.8% (198v222). At the month’s rate of sales, the 1106 active residential listings would last 19.4 months which is the same as January 2010. The most active real estate market is Northern Douglas County (Drain and Yon calla) where sales increased +220% compared to February 2009. Conversely, SW Roseburg and the Sutherlin/Oakland decreased -28.6%.
Even though our sales are increasing, we have been having a lot of trouble getting the appraisal amount to reflect the agreed upon sales price. Many of the appraisals are coming in lower with some as high as 20-25% difference between the sales price and the appraised price. . As we all know, if buyers are going to obtain a loan to purchase the property, the appraisal plays crucial role in the equation of purchasing a home. What that means, is that the market is still unsettled.
Again, please keep our military personal and their families in your thoughts and prayers and Happy Easter to all of you and your family.
You’ve received the emails for Nigerian fund transfers, English Bulldogs, credit card schemes, and other questionable Internet inquiries. The Oregon Attorney General’s office has a couple of very nice tools available online to stay on top of these things. The first, if you use Twitter, is a Twitter feed of current frauds, scams and other questionable activities. You can also register to receive their Scam Alert email.
Here is an example of their most recent release:
BANK OF CASCADES PHISHING SCAM
March 8, 2010
The Vancouver Sun reported this past weekend that a mountain pine beetle epidemic will be one of North America’s greatest natural disasters and result in the closing of 16 major mills in British Columbia.
According to the article, as the effects of the infestation mount, Canada stands to lose up to 50% of its share of the U.S. market and lumber prices will soar. A consulting firm said that after 2013 the effect on the U.S. market will be profound.
