Below, in its entirety, is the most recent (April 14, 2010) retail performance changes information by retail sector from the U.S. Census Bureau. Perhaps one of the easiest ways to use it is to pick your retail category and compare your percent change with the percent change at the national level.
Mark
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.2 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.6 percent (±0.5%) above March 2009. Total sales for the January through March 2010 period were up 5.5 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The January to February 2010 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.5 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 1.8 percent (±0.5%) from February 2010 and 8.2 percent (±0.5%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 26.4 percent (±1.5%) from March 2009 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were up 14.1 percent (±2.5%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for April is scheduled to be released May 14, 2010 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2010
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Mar(3) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 363,194 357,466 355,606 337,476 342,487 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 300,460 298,660 295,682 282,500 285,826 Retail ....................................... 324,003 318,406 317,685 299,493 304,149 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 96,494 95,397 93,123 95,006 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 62,734 58,806 59,924 54,976 56,661 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 56,297 52,384 53,604 48,475 50,048 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,154 8,033 7,879 7,828 8,012 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,761 8,877 8,611 8,468 9,079 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,894 6,632 6,658 7,229 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,983 1,979 1,810 1,850 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,136 23,406 23,390 24,010 24,518 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 19,049 19,070 20,024 20,573 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 50,428 50,337 49,821 48,779 48,627 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 44,965 44,933 44,542 43,502 43,402 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,545 3,485 3,489 3,474 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 21,482 21,431 21,428 21,088 20,909 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 17,680 17,651 17,524 17,371 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,723 34,855 34,793 27,468 28,100 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,224 17,807 17,621 17,244 17,770 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,986 2,968 2,901 2,940 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,280 2,215 2,128 2,169 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,576 7,499 7,424 7,124 7,259 452 General merchandise stores....................... 51,453 51,164 50,727 49,270 49,631 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 16,120 15,959 15,802 15,738 15,915 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 35,205 34,925 33,532 33,716 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 30,976 30,787 29,744 29,877 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 4,229 4,138 3,788 3,839 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,648 9,552 9,391 9,602 9,660 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 26,684 26,639 26,676 23,636 23,923 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 19,196 19,172 16,931 16,948 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 39,191 39,060 37,921 37,983 38,338 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2010
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 3 month total % Chg. 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2010 from Mar(2) Feb Jan Mar Feb Code 2009 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 1,007,359 5.8 367,616 318,118 321,625 334,149 304,056 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 832,825 5.4 297,755 264,715 270,355 275,000 252,560 Retail ....................................... 896,043 6.4 327,837 282,378 285,828 295,520 269,015 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 84,716 83,427 87,477 82,918 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 174,534 7.7 69,861 53,403 51,270 59,149 51,496 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 156,504 9.1 63,109 47,617 45,778 52,498 45,544 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 36,982 36,943 40,575 35,304 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,786 5,492 6,651 5,952 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 22,466 1.0 8,097 7,262 7,107 7,601 7,219 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,320 4,147 4,262 4,296 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,942 2,960 3,339 2,923 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 24,763 -1.1 8,315 8,370 8,078 7,929 8,481 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,508 6,214 6,139 6,759 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,862 1,864 1,790 1,722 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 58,905 -3.2 24,251 17,512 17,142 23,469 18,457 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 14,706 14,684 19,423 15,944 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 144,511 3.1 49,954 45,763 48,794 47,273 44,201 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 130,398 3.1 44,830 41,204 44,364 42,501 39,800 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,964 2,948 3,140 2,897 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 63,830 2.9 22,535 20,338 20,957 21,531 19,843 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,761 17,386 17,892 16,485 447 Gasoline stations................................ 95,005 27.0 33,716 29,627 31,662 26,342 23,801 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 46,154 3.9 17,457 15,120 13,577 15,890 14,930 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 554 583 646 589 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,386 2,241 2,846 2,343 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,642 5,059 6,243 5,687 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,052 1,717 2,071 1,930 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 20,178 4.8 7,015 5,939 7,224 6,433 5,727 452 General merchandise stores....................... 139,413 4.2 49,667 45,226 44,520 46,753 43,640 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 40,713 1.6 15,050 13,191 12,472 14,306 13,127 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 13,519 12,783 14,716 13,495 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 32,035 32,048 32,447 30,513 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 28,343 28,663 28,822 27,188 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,692 3,385 3,625 3,325 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 26,169 0.8 9,332 8,486 8,351 9,072 8,570 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 80,115 12.3 27,637 25,332 27,146 24,078 22,650 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 17,084 18,252 16,660 15,118 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 111,316 1.3 39,779 35,740 35,797 38,629 35,041 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2010
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Mar Feb 2010 2010 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2010 2009 2010 2009 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.6 +7.6 +0.5 +4.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.6 +6.4 +1.0 +4.5 Retail .................................. +1.8 +8.2 +0.2 +4.7 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +6.7 +14.1 -1.9 +3.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +7.5 +16.1 -2.3 +4.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.5 +4.2 +2.0 +0.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.3 +3.5 +3.1 -2.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +3.1 +0.5 +0.1 -4.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.2 +3.4 +1.0 +3.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.1 +3.4 +0.9 +3.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.2 +1.9 0.0 +2.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.4 +26.4 +0.2 +24.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +2.3 +5.7 +1.1 +0.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +1.0 +6.3 +1.0 +3.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.6 +4.4 +0.9 +3.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.0 +2.4 +1.0 +0.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.0 +0.5 +1.7 -1.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.2 +12.9 -0.1 +11.4 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.3 +3.2 +3.0 +1.9 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--March 2010
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Mar Feb 2010 2010 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Feb Mar Jan Feb Code 2010 2009 2010 2009 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +15.6 +10.0 -1.1 +4.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +12.5 +8.3 -2.1 +4.8 Retail .................................. +16.1 +10.9 -1.2 +5.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +30.8 +18.1 +4.2 +3.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +32.5 +20.2 +4.0 +4.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +11.5 +6.5 +2.2 +0.6 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.7 +4.9 +3.6 -1.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +38.5 +3.3 +2.2 -5.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +9.2 +5.7 -6.2 +3.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +8.8 +5.5 -7.1 +3.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +10.8 +4.7 -3.0 +2.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +13.8 +28.0 -6.4 +24.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +15.5 +9.9 +11.4 +1.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +18.1 +9.0 -17.8 +3.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... +9.8 +6.2 +1.6 +3.6 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +14.1 +5.2 +5.8 +0.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +10.0 +2.9 +1.6 -1.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +9.1 +14.8 -6.7 +11.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +11.3 +3.0 -0.2 +2.0 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services–MARCH 2010 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/retail.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. (2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: April 14, 2010
