Demographics

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December 29, 2011

Doug County unemployment improves, still high

Posted by Mark under Business, Demographics, Economy
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DOUGLAS COUNTY – The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remains at a relatively high level and significantly above the statewide rate (9.1%). According to a survey of households, Douglas County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.8 percent in November. Although lower than last year (14.5%), it is the fifth highest in the state. Losses continue to be particularly noticeable in the manufacturing sector, especially in the county’s wood products arena.

 

 

November 2011

November 2010

November 2009
Civilian Labor Force

45,759

46,775

46,318
  Employed

40,435

40,032

39,777
  Unemployed

5,324

6,743

6,541
County

Unemployment

Rate

Seasonally Adjusted:

12.8%

Seasonally Adjusted:

14.5%

Seasonally Adjusted:

14.8%
State

Unemployment

Rate

Seasonally Adjusted:

9.1%

Seasonally Adjusted:

10.6%

Seasonally Adjusted:

11.0%
 

November 2011 Gains and Losses: (these are preliminary estimates and will be revised)

  • Selected net, over-the-year (private sector) gains:
    • Professional & business services: +140
    • Trade, transportation, & utilities: +130 (especially retail trade)
    • Mining & logging: +60

 

  • Selected net, over-the-year (private sector) job losses:
    • Manufacturing: -260 ; (wood products manufacturing: – 290 )
    • Leisure and hospitality: -80
 
Population: Portland State University Population Research Center estimates

July 1, 2011

107,795

21.3 people/square mile

July 1, 2010

107,690

2010-2011

change

+105 (0.1%)
Average Pay per Job:

Douglas 2010

$33,341

Oregon 2010

$41,667

Douglas 2009

$32,742
 

For additional information: http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/BIC or

 

The Douglas County Labor Trends publication:

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/PubReader?itemid=00000046 or

 

Oregon Labor Trends (statewide) : http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/PubReader?itemid=00000051

 

If you would like to regularly receive this monthly update, please drop me an e-mail or phone!

Annette.I.Shelton-Tiderman@state.or.us  Workforce Analyst, Oregon Employment Dept.; 541-530-0605 (cell)

 

 

December 19, 2011

Douglas County’s unemployment rate drops to 12.8%

Posted by Mark under Business, Demographics, Economy
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From: WorkSource Oregon

By Brian Rooney, regional economist

Douglas County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 12.8 percent in November. It was above the statewide seasonally adjusted rate of 9.1 percent and above the national seasonally adjusted rate of 8.6 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 40 in November.

 Resident Labor Force and Unemployment

Douglas County’s unemployment rate dropped to 12.8 percent in November compared to a revised 13.5 percent in October. The rate this November was 1.7 percentage points lower than the 14.5 percent recorded in November of last year. Douglas County had the fifth highest seasonally adjusted county unemployment rate in the state. The number of unemployed dropped 268 in November and was 1,419 lower than November of last year to reach 5,324.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

In November, total nonfarm payroll employment rose 40 when a decrease of 90 was expected on a seasonal basis. Total nonfarm employment declined 320, or -0.9 percent compared to November of last year.

In November, manufacturing dropped 20 from a loss of 10 in wood products and an additional loss of 10 in nondurable goods manufacturing.

In the private nonmanufacturing sectors in November, there was a seasonal gain in retail trade (+60). There were seasonal losses in mining and logging (-50), construction (-30) and leisure and hospitality (-90). Elsewhere, there was a gain in professional and business services (+170). There were losses in wholesale trade (-10), financial activities (-10) and education and health services (-10).

Government increased by 30 in November due largely to a seasonal gain in local education of 100 from the beginning of a new school year. This gain was countered by losses in federal government (-60) and noneducation local government (-10).

 

December 11, 2011

Behind the hype – Who gets what news,where

Posted by Mark under Consumer research, Demographics, Media
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For those whose taste in facts runs to research, Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism is a great place to visit.

Traditional media’s engagement with new media tends to blur the lines as the landscape rapidly evolves and newspaper website continue in aggregate to be at the top of the list of where digital news visitors find their news. Separately, traditional media’s huge investment in original reporting remains the principal source for bloggers and new media sources.

The link above provides some rich statistical facts and here are some highlinghts:

  • Television news is number one for weather, breaking news and traffic
  • Newspapers are the number one source for community news, crime, taxes, local government, arts, culture, social services, zoning and development
  • Internet is tops for restaurants and local business; and ties with newspapers for housing, schools and jobs
  • Radio ties with television as tops for traffic

The survey dates from last January and it will be interesting to watch how these long-held news consumption habits evolve.

 

 

 

November 28, 2011

Consumer confidence slowly rising In November

Posted by Mark under Business, Consumer research, Demographics, Economy, retail, Retail Trends
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October 19, 2011

Where the jobs went – where the jobs are

Posted by Mark under Consumer research, Demographics, Economy
[2] Comments 

In 1940 manufacturing was the largest share of U.S. employment at 30.4%, it rose to 32.7% by 1970. In 2000, as U.S. consumers migrated to foreign manufactured cars and shopped Wal-Mart for inexpensive Chinese goods,manufacturing dropped to 21.3%.

The second largest employment category in 1940 was transportation, communication and finance at 30.4%, almost exactly the same percentage as today. It was higher in 1970 at 35%. Agriculture rounded rounded out the next largest source of employment in 1940 at 19.1%; today it is barely measured.

Professional services has been the biggest beneficiary of the change as the percentage in 1940 was 7.5% and in 2000 was measured at 29.2%.

For those looking at government employment the percent in 1940 was 3.9%; in 1970 5.5%; and in 2000 it was 4.8%.

These a many other measures of U.S. population, dating back to 1790, can be seen in graphical form at this very useful website, demographic chartbook.

 

September 14, 2011

The “average American” – facts you didn’t know

Posted by Mark under Business, Consumer research, Demographics, Economy
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By Cheryl Russell, editorial director, New Strategist Publications

To see this newsletter in your browser, click here.
To see Cheryl Russell’s Demo Memo blog, click here.

(Mark’s note: Cheryl is one smart lady and I appreciate her letting me use some of her material. I’d suggest subscribing to her blog using the link above to see all of her free information.)

It is painfully clear that the nation’s politicians and business leaders are not demographers. If they were, they would not be so far off the mark in their positions and policies, products and promotions. Simply put, they do not have a feel for the average American.

Like most of the public, politicians and business leaders get the bulk of their information about the population from television shows and news stories–a frightening thought since both grossly distort the characteristics of the average American. From reading business stories in the news, for example, you might think the average American actually owns stock (wrong) or runs a business rather than works for one.

 

There is no single source of information on the average American. To know him (or her), you have to follow the demographics. To that end, here is a sampling of just a few of the characteristics of the average American (adult) or household.

1. The average American makes $735/week.

Current Population Survey

2. The average American has $34 in his/her wallet.

Survey of Consumer Payment Choice

3. The average American spends $69 a day.

Gallup

4. The average American has a job (58%).

Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

5. The average American thinks hard work is the way to get ahead (70%).

General Social Survey

6. The average American thinks the government’s number-one priority should be to help keep and create jobs in America (51%).

Economic Mobility Project

7. The average American has employer-provided health insurance (56%).

Current Population Survey

8. The average American household spends $3,126 a year out-of-pocket on health care.

Consumer Expenditure Survey

 

9. The average American has a landline telephone (70%).

National Health Interview Survey

10. The average American has a cell phone (87%), but does not own a smart phone (only 35% own one).

National Health Interview Survey, Pew Research Center

11. The average American says the economy/jobs will be the top issue in the 2012 election (60%).

Kaiser Polls

12. The average American has less than $100,000 in savings (54%).

AARP

13. The average American does not directly own any stock. (Only 19% of households own stock directly.)

Survey of Consumer Finances

 

14. The average American household is $75,600 in debt (including the mortgage).

Survey of Consumer Finances

15. The average American has been to college (56%), but does not have a college degree.

Current Population Survey

16. The average American owns a desktop (59%) and/or laptop computer (52%).

Pew Internet & American Life Project

17. The average American used the Internet today (59%).

Pew Internet & American Life Project

18. The average American says he/she is in very good or excellent health (56%).

Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

 

19. The average American is overweight (63%).

National Health Interview Survey

20. The average American eats at least two snacks a day (65%).

USDA

21. The average American drinks alcohol regularly (52%).

National Health Interview Survey

22. The average American goes to the doctor at least twice a year (65%).

National Health Interview Survey

23. The average American is taking at least one prescription drug.

Health, United States

24. The average American sometimes or often has trouble sleeping (55%).

General Social Survey

 

25. The average American is currently married (51%).

Families and Living Arrangements

26. The average American has never divorced (only 21% have ever divorced).

Survey of Income and Program Participation

27. The average American lives in one of the top 50 metropolitan areas (54%).

2010 census

28. The average American is a homeowner (65%).

2010 census

29. The average American lives in an 1,800 square foot house.

American Housing Survey

30. The average American lives in a house built before 1975.

American Housing Survey

31. The average American believes the effects of global warming have already begun or soon will (53%).

Gallup

32. The average American household is air-conditioned (87%).

American Housing Survey

33. The average American watches 2 hours and 49 minutes of television a day.

American Time Use Survey

34. The average American has two or more children (57%).

General Social Survey

35. The average American favors spanking children, if necessary (69%).

General Social Survey

36. The average American was born in-state (52%).

American Community Survey

37. The average American’s parents were born in the United States (78%)

General Social Survey

38. The average American’s grandparents (all four) were born in the United States (59%).

General Social Survey

39. The average American household owns two vehicles.

Consumer Expenditure Survey

40. The average American household owns at least one pet (62%).

American Pet Products Association

41. The average American pays his/her credit card bill in full each month (54%).

National Bureau of Economic Research

42. The average American household has a net worth of $96,000.

Survey of Consumer Finances

43. The average American believes in God without a doubt (59%).

General Social Survey

44. The average American believes in evolution (56%).

General Social Survey

45. The average American favors the death penalty (68%).

General Social Survey

46. The average American often or always recycles (64%).

General Social Survey

47. The average American wants the government to spend more on education (74%), health care (60%), and the environment (60%).

National Opinion Research Center

48. The average American is worried about being able to maintain his/her standard of living (58%).

Gallup

49. The average American believes the honesty and ethical standards of Congress are low (57%).

Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics

50. The average American does not know which political party controls the House of Representatives (62%).

Pew Research Center

By Cheryl Russell, editorial director, New Strategist Publications. For more about the the average American, see the 10th edition of The American Marketplace: Demographics and Spending Patterns , available in hardcopy or as a PDF download with links to Excel files of each data table. If you have questions or comments about the above editorial, contact demographics@newstrategist.com.

 

September 14, 2011

Home ownership trends – Neil Hummel

Posted by Mark under Demographics, Economy, Real Estate
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By Neil Hummel, Century 21

I read in today’s Register Guard an article about the changing trends in home ownership that is occurring in America.  After the housing bust, some choose to rent longer while new homes tend to be smaller and simpler, the article says.

People who buy today are buying simpler more modest priced homes that are smaller.  The trend toward more space and the most elaborate home in the neighborhood are giving in to a modest home that will fit the needs of the American family as we are beginning to recognize.

More and More households are headed by one parent so the need for a smaller home fits their needs and pocket books better.  Also, homeowners are staying in their homes longer that only 11% of sellers surveyed last year have owned their homes for less than 3 years as opposed to 30% in 2006.

Increasingly, consumers are seeing their houses simply as a place to live, not as lucrative investments as in the past few years. Prior to that the last 50 years have seen nothing but real estate appreciate.  Now that is not true.  Many Americans are underwater in their home purchase and many are walking away.  Thus prices continue to drop because of the increase in for closured properties a trend that will continue for some time into the future.

Historically, home ownership hovers around the 60% level for all Americans.  From 2000-2006 that level jumped to 70% which we discovered was unsustainable.  We have all  witnessed (more…)

 

July 1, 2011

The next time you read a FB reminiscence that the world should not have changed, remember – the old days are gone, get over it … again

Posted by Mark under Demographics, Media
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February 16, 2011

Great comparison – great recession, great depression

Posted by Mark under Business, Consumer research, Demographics, Economy
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Cheryl Russel’s work is always some of the most insightful I read. After you read through this you will want to sign up for her newsletter. and buy her books.

demographics@newstrategist.com

Score One for the Great Recession

How do you measure bad times? Specifically, how does the Great Recession compare with the Great Depression? Economists typically use GDP as the measuring stick. During the Great Depression, GDP fell by a stunning 27 percent. During the Great Recession, GDP fell only 4 percent. Using the GDP measure, then, the Great Recession was only 15 percent as severe as the Great Depression (4/27 x 100 = 15).

Something is missing from the GDP comparison, however: a human face. GDP and other macro-level economic statistics fail to capture the human experience of hard times. We need something that measures the personal dimension of economic downturns. One way to measure the personal is with the yardstick of demographic change. We can use demographic statistics–unemployment, homeownership, living arrangements, births, marriages, migration, and even death–to compare the Great Recession with the Great Depression. And we will keep score.

Unemployment

When comparing the Great Recession with the Great Depression, the unemployment rate is the Holy Grail. Unfortunately, it is not possible to directly compare the unemployment rates of the two time periods. Today, the federal government surveys an enormous sample of the population every month to determine unemployment. Not so during the Great Depression. Historians have made educated guesses about unemployment during the 1930s by subtracting estimates of the employed from estimates of the civilian labor force. The remainder is the unemployed. According to these calculations, unemployment during the Great Depression peaked at 25.2 percent in 1933.

The official unemployment rate during the Great Recession peaked at a much lower 10.1 percent in October 2009. Some say this figure does not tell the whole story because it counts as unemployed only those who have been looking for work recently. Even using the most expansive definition of unemployment, however, the rate (more…)

 

February 2, 2011

Outstanding economic map shows where and how much

Posted by Mark under Demographics, Economy, Real Estate
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The foreclosure rate in Douglas County, household incomes and unemployment rates are all graphically displayed on this national map from National Public Radio. It won’t ease your pain, much, but it puts our economic circumstance into perspective in a quick and useful way.

 

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