Economy


 

DOUGLAS COUNTY The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remains at a relatively high level and significantly above the statewide rate (9.1%). According to a survey of households, Douglas County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.8 percent in November. Although lower than last year (14.5%), it is the fifth highest in the state. Losses continue to be particularly noticeable in the manufacturing sector, especially in the county’s wood products arena.

 

 

November 2011

November 2010

November 2009

Civilian Labor Force

45,759

46,775

46,318

  Employed

40,435

40,032

39,777

  Unemployed

5,324

6,743

6,541

County

Unemployment

Rate

Seasonally Adjusted:

12.8%

Seasonally Adjusted:

14.5%

Seasonally Adjusted:

14.8%

State

Unemployment

Rate

Seasonally Adjusted:

9.1%

Seasonally Adjusted:

10.6%

Seasonally Adjusted:

11.0%

 

November 2011 Gains and Losses: (these are preliminary estimates and will be revised)

  • Selected net, over-the-year (private sector) gains:
    • Professional & business services: +140
    • Trade, transportation, & utilities: +130 (especially retail trade)
    • Mining & logging: +60

 

  • Selected net, over-the-year (private sector) job losses:
    • Manufacturing: -260 ; (wood products manufacturing: – 290 )
    • Leisure and hospitality: -80

 
Population: Portland State University Population Research Center estimates

July 1, 2011

107,795

21.3 people/square mile

July 1, 2010

107,690

2010-2011

change

+105 (0.1%)

Average Pay per Job:

Douglas 2010

$33,341

Oregon 2010

$41,667

Douglas 2009

$32,742

 

For additional information: http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/BIC or

 

The Douglas County Labor Trends publication:

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/PubReader?itemid=00000046 or

 

Oregon Labor Trends (statewide) : http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/PubReader?itemid=00000051

 

If you would like to regularly receive this monthly update, please drop me an e-mail or phone!

Annette.I.Shelton-Tiderman@state.or.us  Workforce Analyst, Oregon Employment Dept.; 541-530-0605 (cell)

 

From: Scarborough Research

NEW YORK (August 10, 2011) –A new study from the consumer research firm Scarborough Research finds that American consumers continue to actively seek out ways to save money on everyday expenses. Coupon usage for household groceries is up 24 percent since 2006. People are turning to a myriad of resources for their coupons.

While more than one‐fifth (22 percent) are utilizing digital media such as email, text messaging or Internet sites to get their household coupons, the Sunday newspaper is the category killer. Almost half of all Americans get their household coupons from the Sunday newspaper.

Leading Sources for Household Coupons
1. Sunday Newspaper: 49%
2. In‐store Coupons: 43%
3. Mail: 33%
4. In‐store Circulars: 26%
5. Preferred Customer/Loyalty Card: 24%
6. TIE: Weekday Newspaper: 19%, Product Packages: 19%
7. Magazines: 17%
8. Internet Sites: 14%
9. Email or Text Messages: 14%
“As the American economic recovery continues to find a balance, people are utilizing a myriad of ways to save money. From traditional paper coupon clipping to seeking out deals online, consumers are getting creative with finding the best deals,” said Brian Condon, executive vice president of commercial development, Scarborough Research.

Digital Deal Seekers Provide Unique Local Business Connections

Daily deal websites are now being viewed as a media channel option for local businesses. Further, local media companies and other media businesses are getting in on the action through their own exclusive daily deal programs. Any company seeking to bolster local business has much to gain with daily deal programs, according to Scarborough. Scarborough finds that Digital Deal Seekers* are more likely than average adults to be patrons of local businesses such as florists, malls, restaurants and day spas. Here is a Scarborough profile of local businesses set to benefit from daily deal websites:
Restaurants

• Digital Deal Seekers* are 36 percent more likely than the average adult to have eaten ten or more times at a quick service restaurant during the past month, and 27 percent more likely to have eaten with this frequency at a sit‐down restaurant.
• More than half (53 percent) of Digital Deal Seekers ate at McDonald’s during the past month, and almost one‐fifth (17 percent) ate at Applebee’s.
• Their favorite cuisine is Chinese. Forty‐eight percent of Digital Deal Seekers ate at a Chinese restaurant during the past month. Forty percent ate at a Mexican restaurant, and 29 percent went out for Italian.

General Retail Stores
• Groceries: Digital Deal Seekers account for one‐third of the population that spends $200 or more on groceries weekly – the highest spending bracket measured by Scarborough.
• Department Stores: A full 91 percent of Digital Deal Seekers shopped a department store during the past month.
• Malls: They are 16 percent more likely to have shopped at a mall during the past month.
Local Specialty Stores
• Jewelry Stores: Digital Deal Seekers account for 39 percent of adults who shopped at a fine jewelry store during the past three months. They are 44 percent more likely to have done so.
• Bridal: They also account for 41 percent of all patrons of bridal stores during the past three months.
• Day Spas: Six percent of Digital Deal Seekers utilized a day spa during the past three months, but they account for almost half (43 percent) of adults who use day spa services.

• Florist: Digital Deal Seekers are 30 percent more likely to have used a florist during the past three months.

• Dry Cleaners: More than one‐fifth (21 percent) of all Digital Deal Seekers used a dry cleaner during the
past month, they are 37 percent more likely than the average adult to have done so.
• Pet Supplies: More than half (51 percent) of Digital Deal Seekers shopped a pet store during the past three months.
Health & Fitness Businesses
• Digital Deal Seekers are 47 percent more likely to practice yoga or pilates; 31 percent more likely to enjoy swimming; and 27 percent more likely to go running.
• They are 32 percent more likely to go to the gym.
Automotive Repair/Servicing
• Scarborough measures 13 types of auto repair services, and Digital Deal Seekers are more likely than the average adult to utilize each of them.
• From specialty detailing businesses to parts stores, a wide variety of types of local auto businesses have clientele utilizing Digital Deals.
“Daily deal websites are creating new media channel‐like opportunities for marketers, especially at the local level,” said Mr. Condon. “Local businesses embarking on digital marketing should consider the Digital Deal Seeker group a good place to anchor their efforts, as they are active local shoppers and consumers. As such, a key issue facing these daily deal sites is how they can differentiate their offerings according to the local needs and continue to evolve business models that create win‐win scenarios for local merchants.”

* Digital Deal Seekers refer to those adults who live in households that usually obtain cents‐off coupons via email, text messages or Internet sites, or those adults who went online for coupons during the past month.

SOURCE: Scarborough Research, Scarborough USA+ Study, Release 2 2010
About Scarborough
Scarborough (www.scarborough.com, info@scarborough.com) measures American life. Our consumer insights
reflect shopping patterns, media usage across platforms, and lifestyle trends for adults. Media professionals and
marketers use Scarborough insights to make smarter marketing/business decisions on things like ad placement,
multicultural targeting, and sponsorship opportunities. The company’s core syndicated consumer insight studies in
77 Top‐Tier Markets, its Multi‐Market Study and its national USA+ Study are Media Rating Council (MRC)
accredited. Other products and services include Scarborough Mid‐Tier Local Market Studies, Hispanic Studies and
Custom Research Solutions. Scarborough measures 2,000 consumer categories and serves a broad client base that
includes marketers, advertising agencies, print and electronic media (broadcast and cable television, radio
stations), sports teams and leagues and out‐of‐home media companies. Surveying more than 210,000 adults
annually, Scarborough is a joint venture between Arbitron Inc. (www.arbitron.com) and The Nielsen Company
(www.nielsen.com).

From: Alex Campbell

Creative Business Deals Build Local Employment

As of November 1, Atrio‘s membership for their Medicare supplement insurance expanded from under 6,000 to 12,000 through an agreement with Willamette Valley Health Partners (Willamette Valley purchased a portion of Atrio, and Atrio has taken on the administration of their insurance functions). The new deal was closed by Atrio’s new CEO Ruth Rogers Bauman and allowed Atrio to hire an additional 12 employees. Atrio is continuing to consider new markets for its insurance management services.

Linen Services, owned by Mike Fassler, has been expanding (now up to 12 full- and part-time employees). Much of that growth was driven by a successful bid to take on Mercy Medical Center’s primary linen contract. Mercy agreed to pay a significant portion of the contract up front, financing new capacity for Linen Services, in return for a long-term discount. The net result was savings for Mercy and the addition of 10 jobs that were previously outside the County. Linen Services is at (541) 643-2200.

Other Recent News

  • The proposed Jordan Cove LNG project received a preliminary export permit from FERC. That decision has been appealed, by the Oregon Attorney General.
  • Umpqua Research has won a contract from NASA to develop a highly energy- and water-efficient laundry technology for use in space missions.

Resources:

Oregon BEST has announced a new grant program to support the commercialization of new technologies in the “cleantech” sector (renewable energy, green building, etc.) through collaboration between Oregon research institutions and small businesses.

OMEP–the Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership–has a new initiative to support Oregon manufacturers improve their position in regional and national supply chains through implementation of Lean and related management approaches.

Up-coming events:

The UCC Small Business Development Center will host a 6-part series “Profit Mastery”–an in-depth look at tools small and medium-sized businesses can use to generate powerful information to support business decisions from your financial data. More info.

Partnership News:

Kelly Morgan, CEO of Mercy, has agreed to serve as Chair of our Board of Directors beginning January 2012. Our thanks to Perry Murray who led The Partnership through several significant recent transitions with humor and grace.

From: WorkSource Oregon

By Brian Rooney, regional economist

Douglas County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 12.8 percent in November. It was above the statewide seasonally adjusted rate of 9.1 percent and above the national seasonally adjusted rate of 8.6 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 40 in November.

 Resident Labor Force and Unemployment

Douglas County’s unemployment rate dropped to 12.8 percent in November compared to a revised 13.5 percent in October. The rate this November was 1.7 percentage points lower than the 14.5 percent recorded in November of last year. Douglas County had the fifth highest seasonally adjusted county unemployment rate in the state. The number of unemployed dropped 268 in November and was 1,419 lower than November of last year to reach 5,324.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

In November, total nonfarm payroll employment rose 40 when a decrease of 90 was expected on a seasonal basis. Total nonfarm employment declined 320, or -0.9 percent compared to November of last year.

In November, manufacturing dropped 20 from a loss of 10 in wood products and an additional loss of 10 in nondurable goods manufacturing.

In the private nonmanufacturing sectors in November, there was a seasonal gain in retail trade (+60). There were seasonal losses in mining and logging (-50), construction (-30) and leisure and hospitality (-90). Elsewhere, there was a gain in professional and business services (+170). There were losses in wholesale trade (-10), financial activities (-10) and education and health services (-10).

Government increased by 30 in November due largely to a seasonal gain in local education of 100 from the beginning of a new school year. This gain was countered by losses in federal government (-60) and noneducation local government (-10).

For Immediate Release
Kathy Grannis (202) 783-7971 or grannisk@NRF.com
www.nrf.com/holidays

National Retail Federation Upgrades Holiday Forecast, Expects Sales to Rise 3.8 Percent to $469.1 Billion
-Strong November Sales, Expected December Spending Lead to Revision-

Washington, December 15, 2011 – With just ten days until Christmas, the National Retail Federation has revised its holiday forecast upward, expecting holiday sales to rise 3.8 percent this year to a record $469.1 billion. NRF’s initial forecast, announced on October 6, called for anticipated sales growth of 2.8 percent. While a 3.8 percent sales increase is considerably above the ten-year average sales increase of 2.6 percent, it is still lower than the 5.2 percent increase the retail industry saw last year.

“After strong sales reports in October and November, along with a successful Black Friday weekend, retailers are cautiously optimistic that this season will turn out better than initially expected, bringing added stability to our recovering economy at a time when America needs it most,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “However, a number of factors, including the debt crisis in Europe and continued political wrangling in Washington, could impact consumer spending this holiday season and into 2012.”

The forecast revision comes on the heels of two promising pieces of news. On Tuesday, NRF announced that retail industry sales for November rose 4.5 percent year-over-year. In addition, NRF’s most recent holiday survey found that the average American has completed far less of their holiday shopping than in previous years – an indication that many shoppers bought for themselves in November and have plenty of holiday shopping left to do.

“Consumer spending this holiday season has surpassed expectations, though many shoppers continue to stick to their budgets and buy only what they need,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.

As the world’s largest retail trade association and the voice of retail worldwide, NRF represents retailers of all types and sizes, including chain restaurants and industry partners, from the United States and more than 45 countries abroad. Retailers operate more than 3.6 million U.S. establishments that support one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.5 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation’s economy. NRF’s Retail Means Jobs campaign emphasizes the economic importance of retail and encourages policymakers to support a Jobs, Innovation and Consumer Value Agenda aimed at boosting economic growth and job creation. www.nrf.com.

Consumers will spend more, shop more places, expect more, shop online more … and FedEx has hired 20,000 additional seasonal workers. Want more? Check out the Nation Retail Federations Retail Big Blog.

For Immediate Release
Kathy Grannis (202)783-7971 or grannisk@nrf.com
www.nrf.com/holidays

Up to 152 Million Shoppers Expected to Visit Stores, Websites Black Friday Weekend,
According to NRF Survey

-Number of People “Definitely” Shopping Jumps from 27% in 2010 to 33%-

Washington, November 17, 2011 – Though there are already plenty of great deals on everything from e-readers and smartphones to apparel and toys, Americans know there is only one Black Friday – and the best is yet to come. According to a preliminary Black Friday shopping survey, conducted for the National Retail Federation by BIGresearch, up to 152 million people plan to shop Black Friday weekend (Friday, Saturday and Sunday), higher than the 138 million people who planned to do so last year. According to the survey, 74 million people say they will definitely hit the stores and another 77 million are waiting to see if the bargains are worth braving the cold and the crowds.

“Though many retailers are already touting select Black Friday ads, there’s no doubt we’ll all be blown away by what retailers still have in their bag of tricks for shoppers,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We fully expect to see excited shoppers as early as midnight at stores around the country, as many holiday shoppers would rather stay up all night to take advantage of retailers’ Black Friday deals rather than set their alarm to wake up the next morning.”

For the first time, NRF asked shoppers how they plan to keep track of retailers’ holiday sales and promotions announcements. Half (50.5%) will keep up with advertising circulars throughout the holiday season and nearly one-third (31.7%) said they will tune in to watch retailers’ holiday commercials. Additionally, nearly one-quarter (23.1%) will seek out coupon websites like RetailMeNot.com and FatWallet.com, and 32.3 percent will specifically keep track of the email coupons they receive from retailers.

“Social media will play a big role in how shoppers follow company sales announcements this holiday season,” said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, BIGresearch. “From Facebook to Twitter and even group buying sites, ‘social’ retailers may be rewarded this season in terms of additional holiday sales.”

The survey found 17.3 percent will monitor retailers’ Facebook pages and 11.3 percent will check out group-buying sites like Groupon and LivingSocial. Of those who own tablet devices and who plan to shop for or research holiday items this year, one in five (21.3%) will seek out group buying sites and 31.2 percent will check out retailers’ Facebook pages.

View NRF’s Black Friday Shopping Tips.

Retailers Ramping Up Social Media, Email Campaigns to Boost Store Traffic This Black Friday

As retailers prep their stores for the biggest shopping weekend of the year, they are also ramping up their activity online. This Black Friday, retailers will harness the power of social media and the Internet to bring shoppers into stores. According to the Shop.org eHoliday Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, eight in 10 (84.2%) retailers will send an email to their customers about Black Friday deals, up from 80.0 percent last year. A marked increase from last year, nearly three-quarters (73.7%) will use their Facebook page to reach out to shoppers, up from 57.1 percent last year. Additionally, many retailers will utilize their website’s home page (50.0%) and Twitter (57.9%) to announce and promote Black Friday deals.

CyberMonday.com Announces Black Friday Deals of the Hour

Black Friday is no longer just about offering eager holiday shoppers great deals in their stores; retailers are also preparing special e-Commerce deals for online shoppers that day. Shop.org’s CyberMonday.com, which features promotions and deals from hundreds of retailers, will feature a Deal of the Hour on Black Friday from more than 20 different retailers. Retailers participating in the Black Friday Deal of the Hour include Sears.com, homedepot.com, Barnes & Noble.com, eBags.com, Macys.com, BestBuy.com. Lowes.com, Kmart.com and many more. (Click here for the full list of companies and times.) Offers will include free shipping specials, dollars off, percentages off, and free gifts with purchase. Retailers will also use CyberMonday.com to promote their special Cyber Monday Deal of the Hour. (CyberMonday.com Deal of the Hour information will be announced Sunday, November 27, 2011.)

Black Friday Contact Information and Additional Details

NRF will release the results of its Black Friday weekend survey by 1:30 p.m. EST on Sunday, November 28 and will hold a special media briefing at 2 p.m. EST. Information will include what time people started shopping on Black Friday, where they shopped, how much they spent, and what they purchased. NRF will also be releasing findings from a new survey on the number of people expected to shop on Cyber Monday.

NRF’s offices will be closed on Black Friday and throughout the weekend, so please use the communications team’s direct lines to set up print and broadcast interviews with NRF spokespeople. (This is the only way to contact the PR team over the holiday weekend):

- Kathy Grannis: (202) 626-8189 or cell (202) 821-7513 or grannisk@nrf.com
- Ellen Davis: (202) 626-8127 or cell (703) 474-3446 davise@nrf.com
- Kara Goehring (202) 661-3055 or cell (318) 918-8830 or goehringk@nrf.com

About the Survey

The NRF 2011 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey was designed to gauge consumer behavior and shopping trends related to the winter holidays. The survey polled 8,502 consumers (more…)

You have until end of day Wednesday, November 9 to register for Economic Forecast.

 Five speakers will bring a wide range of information and knowledge to this half-day event. Speakers are: Fred Dickson, economist and senior VP at D.A. Davidson & CO.; Raymond P. Davis, president & CEO of Umpqua Holdings Corporation; Paul Owen, president of Vanport International; John H. Brown, partner of Evans, Elder & Brown Real Estate Brokerage; and Graham Slater, Oregon Employment Department’s Director of Research.

The cost of the program is $35 for members, $30 for three or more members and $40 for non-members with continental breakfast included. Register online at http://www.roseburgareachamber.org/chamber/events.php, or call 541-672-2648, ext. 22.

Sponsors include: Avista Utilities, C&D Lumber Company, Douglas Timber Operators, Oregon Pacific Bank, Seven Feathers Casino Resort, Slight, Klimowicz & Friel, CPA, Umpqua Insurance Agency, Umpqua Training & Employment and Watkinson, Laird, Rubenstein, Baldwin & Burgess, PC.

 

REMEMBER THE ECONOMIC FORECAST IS HELD AT:

Douglas County Fairgrounds, 7:45 a.m. to noon

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