NR Market Watch

Are these ads good? You bet! I still remember 11 of them. See them here.

Oregonians are not immune from taking undue pride in what we consider first and best in the nation. Bottle bills, assisted suicide, health programs are all regularly mentioned at least within the state as evidence of our progressive nature.

A Eugene man, David Imus, however, has created something of real merit. A singular work of art and science, map of the United States which took best of show at the annual competition of the Cartography and Geographic Information Society.

Six thousand hours of work over two years to create something special. You  can read about it in Slate and you can purchase a copy of it here.

• Theme ~ In Business For Business
• 5:45 p.m. Reception ~ 6:45 p.m. Dinner
• Douglas Hall, Douglas County Fairgrounds
• $60 per person or $575 for table of ten

• Full tables will have priority seating and must be paid for in full at the time of registration. Reservations and payments will be accepted online on January 2, 2012 at www.roseburgareachamber.org/chamber/events.php. The chamber office will take reservations and payments beginning on January 3.

• Title sponsors for this grand affair are Umpqua Bank and Umpqua Insurance Agency. ATRIO Health Plans, bbg Marketing and the Cow Creek Band of Umpqua Tribe of Indians share the honor as corporate sponsors.
• Future First Citizen awards sponsored by Umpqua Bank, The Bruce Family and Mercy Medical Center.

From Worksource Oregon

Latest Local Area Employment Data
Douglas County’s unemployment rate dropped to 13.4 percent in October compared with a revised 13.6 percent in September. The rate this October was 1.4 percentage points lower than the 14.8 percent recorded in October of last year. Douglas County had the forth highest seasonally adjusted county unemployment rate in the state. The number of unemployed dropped 47 in October and was 765 lower than in October 2010, at 5,519.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
In October, total nonfarm payroll employment rose 80 when an increase of 200 was expected on a seasonal basis. Total nonfarm employment declined 240, or 0.7 percent, compared with October of last year. Manufacturing dropped 60 jobs in October from a loss of 60 in wood products and an additional loss of 10 in other durable goods. These losses were  countered by a gain of 10 in nondurable goods.

by: Rick Sohn

Timber Industry Report                                         October 30, 2011

Housing starts picked up this month to the second highest number in 3 years.  Will it repeat next month?  Logs already made a typical mid-winter spike, driven by some shortages.   See below for details and a six-year span of prices and analysis of lumber, logs, housing, and mortgage stats.

__Prices in Dollars per Thousand Board Feet___

____ Thousands of  Housing Units__

 __ Months of  Inventory of Unsold Homes_

____    Percentage interest rate         _   

Information and interpretation.

Housing starts picked up noticeably this month.  With the exception of a one-month spike in April of 2010 (687)  housing starts have not been this high for 3 years !!!!! — since October, 2008.  Lets hope September 2011 is not another one-month trend.  In other stats, mortgage rates are up only slightly, and unsold inventories are still under 7 months.

One other noticeable statistic this month….. the log price.  Fall log prices normally fall through the end of the year, In contrast, in the last few years, August to September has remained relatively stable due to thinner inventories and the struggle to sell product.  This year, a $30 price rise, similar to that seen in mid-winter, is already evident, driven by some log shortages at mills.

A comparison of log price to lumber price does suggest that log suppliers’ prices are in line.  In September ’07 , logs were $561 and lumber was $225, very similar to today.  What is out of line is September 2006, where lumber prices were relatively stable, but log prices were still falling.  Lumber had reacted quickly to the change in market demand, but log prices were slower to come down.

I was at the Umpqua Community College Wine Institute today.  There were two students using the de-stemmer to remove grapes from their stems.  One was a displaced mill worker.  The other, a displaced home construction worker.  The timber and housing industries are still justifiably described as remaining in a depression, even with some  small bright signs.  We are better off than September 2009, with both logs and lumber were nearly 1/3 higher today.   But two years later, recovery is not the way to describe this gain.

Data reports used with permission of:

¹Random Lengths.  2”x4”x8’ precision end trimmed hem-fir studs from southern Oregon mills.  Price reported is Dollars per Thousand Board Feet  for the most recent week.  One “board foot” of product measures 12 inches by 12 inches by one inch thick.

²RISI, Log Lines.   Douglas-fir #2 Sawmill Log Average Region 5 price.  Current report is for the prior month.  Dollars per Thousand Board Feet of logs are reported using standardized  log measurements from the “Scribner log table.”

³ Dept. of Commerce, US Census Bureau.   New Residential Housing Starts and New Residential Construction Permits, seasonally adjusted, annual rate.  Current report is for the prior month.   Recent reports are often revised in bold.  Also, major revision made each May, reaching 21/2  yrs back.

⁴Regional Multiple Listing Service RMLS^TM  data, courtesy of Janet Johnston, Prudential Real Estate Professionals  Broker, Roseburg, OR.  Inventory of Unsold Homes (Ratio of Active Listings to Closed Sales) in Portland Oregon, for most recent month available.

⁵Freddie Mac.  Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  30-year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971, national averages.  Updated weekly, current report is for the prior full month.

Issue  #4-10. © Copyright Rick Sohn, Umpqua Coquille LLC.   For permission to reprint for nominal fee, Email  rsohn@umpquacoquille.com

Prior to the earthquake, tsunami, nuclear disaster in Japan I w as hearing of projected supply issues for auto dealers as resurgent consumer demand was predicted to stress a diminished auto manufacturing base. The Detroit News is predicting the disaster in Japan will affect every major automaker worldwide by mid-to-late April. Japan’s lost auto production is currently estimated to be 337,000 vehicles and rising. Watch for this to impact the supply side of the supply and demand pricing curve.

The Umpqua Community College Board of Trustees named Dr. Joseph Olson as the ninth president (including two interims) of the College.  He follows Dr. Blaine Nisson, who retired in December, and Dr. Rita Cavin, who has served as interim since then.

The Board met in open, public session Tuesday evening following a day of interviewing the four finalists.  The finalists came from 33 applications for the position that were winnowed down  by an 18-member screening community made up of members of the community, students, alumni, faculty, staff and Board members.  On Monday, each of the four finalists spoke to the community in public forums of an hour each held on the College campus.

“We had an excellent pool of candidates,” said UCC Board chair Betty Tamm, “so it made choosing the best of the best a challenge.  We believe we’ve found someone with great experience and skills who is excited about our community.  I think Dr. Joe Olson will interact well on and off campus, will promote our vision and strategic plan and guide Umpqua Community College through difficult economic times.”

Joseph Olson is the vice president for military, community and economic development at Copper Mountain College in Joshua Tree, California. A native of Boston, Dr. Olson holds Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees from Suffolk University (MA). He received his Doctor of Education degree from East Tennessee State University in Johnson City, TN. Prior to going to California, Dr. Olson served as the president of Jefferson Community College in Watertown, NY; has been Vice President for Student and Administrative Services at Adirondack Community College (NY); Dean of Students at Catawba Valley Community College (NC), and Interim Vice President for Academic Affairs and Dean for Continuing Education at Lamar University-Orange (TX).

The Board will be negotiating a salary and a starting time with him.