December 27, 2011

The Sohn Report – Seasonal timber patterns but improving fundamentals

Posted by Mark under Timber Industry
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By: Rick Sohn

Timber Industry Report                                         December 22, 2011

Weaker log and stud prices are seasonally expected, while homebuilding statistics increased, unsold inventory dropped, and mortgage rates continued near record lows.  See below for details and a six-year span of prices and analysis of lumber, logs, housing, and mortgage statistics.

__Prices in Dollars per Thousand Board Feet___

  Dec ‘11 Nov‘11 Oct ‘11 Sept ‘11 Nov ‘09 Nov‘06
Southern Oregon Studs ¹ $220 $222 $227   $235 $197 $225
Southern Oregon Logs² Not avail. $545 $550  $563 $417 $596

____ Thousands of  Housing Units__

  Nov‘11 Oct ‘11 Sept ‘11 Nov ‘09 Nov‘06
US Private Housing Starts3 685 627 646 1535 1570
US Private Building Permits3 681 644 589   623   588

 __ Months of  Inventory of Unsold Homes_

  Nov‘11 Oct ‘11 Sept ‘11 Nov ‘09 Nov‘06
Portland OR Unsold Home Inventory4  6.2  6.8  6.7   7.1 5.1

____    Percentage interest rate         _   

                                                             Nov‘11 Oct ‘11 Sept ‘11 Nov ‘09 Nov‘06
30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage5                         3.99 4.07  4.11  4.88  6.24

 

Information and interpretation.

As reported in the News Review, Roseburg Oregon, Swanson Group has gone from operating 6 mills with 1200 employees in 2007, to 4 mills with 700 employees in 2011.  CEO Steve Swanson provided the information while explaining competition from Canadians who under-grade logs so that products produced from them escape an export duty when sold into the US.  Swanson Group’s layoffs are taking place as normally competitive operations look for ways to balance supply and demand, in an environment exacerbated by both the weak domestic market and over-supply from Canada.  One of Swanson’s 2 mills is shuttered (former Glide Lumber) and the other. Located at Noti,  was sold to Seneca Sawmill Co.  of Eugene, and operates at a reduced rate.

 

This month, Lumber and Logs are following a typical end-of-year pattern, and are down slightly, due to the decreased demand of the season.

 

Fundamentals continue to slowly improve.  Housing starts are up.  Builder’s prices, combined with the low mortgage interest rates, are finally pushing housing starts and building permits up about 10% over last month’s seasonally adjusted rate.  Some people simply have more urge to build than to buy the attractively prices homes on the market.

 

There are other good signs for our domestic economy, such as a stronger shopping season, and slightly improved employment picture.   There is optimism, despite serious  challenges beyond our control, particularly in Europe.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to All.  Lets hope for more improvement in 2012.

 

Data reports used with permission of:

1Random Lengths.  2”x4”x8’ precision end trimmed hem-fir studs from southern Oregon mills.  Price reported is Dollars per Thousand Board Feet  for the most recent week.  One “board foot” of product measures 12 inches by 12 inches by one inch thick.

2RISI, Log Lines.   Douglas-fir #2 Sawmill Log Average Region 5 price.  Current report is for the prior month.  Dollars per Thousand Board Feet of logs are reported using standardized  log measurements from the “Scribner log table.”

3 Dept. of Commerce, US Census Bureau.   New Residential Housing Starts and New Residential Construction Permits, seasonally adjusted, annual rate.  Current report is for the prior month.   Recent reports are often revised in bold.  Also, major revision made each May, reaching 21/2  yrs back.

4Regional Multiple Listing Service RMLSTM  data, courtesy of Janet Johnston, Prudential Real Estate Professionals  Broker, Roseburg, OR.  Inventory of Unsold Homes (Ratio of Active Listings to Closed Sales) in Portland Oregon, for most recent month available.

5Freddie Mac.  Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  30-year Fixed Rate Mortgages Since 1971, national averages.  Updated weekly, current report is for the prior full month.

Issue  #4-12. © Copyright Rick Sohn, Umpqua Coquille LLC.   For permission to reprint for nominal fee, Email  rsohn@umpquacoquille.com

 

December 21, 2011

Roseburg Chamber’s State of the County Report is Jan.9

Posted by Mark under Business education, Business leadership
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1/9    Membership Meeting

  • State of the County Report         
  • Douglas County Commissioner Joe Laurance will present the annual State of the County address. Commissioner Laurance will review and evaluate county issues from 2011 and update chamber members on the projected county business plans for 2012. Douglas County is in a time of change and you will not want to miss this opportunity to ask questions of one of our most appreciated Commissioners.
    • Sponsored by Roseburg Forest Products
    • Douglas County Fairgrounds from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m.
    • The cost of the program is $18 for members, two (2) members for $35, $25 for non-members and $135 for a member table of eight. A buffet lunch is included.
    • Deadline for reservations is 5 p.m. on Thursday, January 5, 2012.
 

December 19, 2011

December Partnership for Economic Development in Douglas County, OR report

Posted by Mark under Business, Economy
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From: Alex Campbell

Creative Business Deals Build Local Employment

As of November 1, Atrio‘s membership for their Medicare supplement insurance expanded from under 6,000 to 12,000 through an agreement with Willamette Valley Health Partners (Willamette Valley purchased a portion of Atrio, and Atrio has taken on the administration of their insurance functions). The new deal was closed by Atrio’s new CEO Ruth Rogers Bauman and allowed Atrio to hire an additional 12 employees. Atrio is continuing to consider new markets for its insurance management services.

Linen Services, owned by Mike Fassler, has been expanding (now up to 12 full- and part-time employees). Much of that growth was driven by a successful bid to take on Mercy Medical Center’s primary linen contract. Mercy agreed to pay a significant portion of the contract up front, financing new capacity for Linen Services, in return for a long-term discount. The net result was savings for Mercy and the addition of 10 jobs that were previously outside the County. Linen Services is at (541) 643-2200.

Other Recent News

  • The proposed Jordan Cove LNG project received a preliminary export permit from FERC. That decision has been appealed, by the Oregon Attorney General.
  • Umpqua Research has won a contract from NASA to develop a highly energy- and water-efficient laundry technology for use in space missions.

Resources:

Oregon BEST has announced a new grant program to support the commercialization of new technologies in the “cleantech” sector (renewable energy, green building, etc.) through collaboration between Oregon research institutions and small businesses.

OMEP–the Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership–has a new initiative to support Oregon manufacturers improve their position in regional and national supply chains through implementation of Lean and related management approaches.

Up-coming events:

The UCC Small Business Development Center will host a 6-part series “Profit Mastery”–an in-depth look at tools small and medium-sized businesses can use to generate powerful information to support business decisions from your financial data. More info.

Partnership News:

Kelly Morgan, CEO of Mercy, has agreed to serve as Chair of our Board of Directors beginning January 2012. Our thanks to Perry Murray who led The Partnership through several significant recent transitions with humor and grace.
 

December 19, 2011

Douglas County’s unemployment rate drops to 12.8%

Posted by Mark under Business, Demographics, Economy
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From: WorkSource Oregon

By Brian Rooney, regional economist

Douglas County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 12.8 percent in November. It was above the statewide seasonally adjusted rate of 9.1 percent and above the national seasonally adjusted rate of 8.6 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 40 in November.

 Resident Labor Force and Unemployment

Douglas County’s unemployment rate dropped to 12.8 percent in November compared to a revised 13.5 percent in October. The rate this November was 1.7 percentage points lower than the 14.5 percent recorded in November of last year. Douglas County had the fifth highest seasonally adjusted county unemployment rate in the state. The number of unemployed dropped 268 in November and was 1,419 lower than November of last year to reach 5,324.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

In November, total nonfarm payroll employment rose 40 when a decrease of 90 was expected on a seasonal basis. Total nonfarm employment declined 320, or -0.9 percent compared to November of last year.

In November, manufacturing dropped 20 from a loss of 10 in wood products and an additional loss of 10 in nondurable goods manufacturing.

In the private nonmanufacturing sectors in November, there was a seasonal gain in retail trade (+60). There were seasonal losses in mining and logging (-50), construction (-30) and leisure and hospitality (-90). Elsewhere, there was a gain in professional and business services (+170). There were losses in wholesale trade (-10), financial activities (-10) and education and health services (-10).

Government increased by 30 in November due largely to a seasonal gain in local education of 100 from the beginning of a new school year. This gain was countered by losses in federal government (-60) and noneducation local government (-10).

 

December 16, 2011

The Hummel Report – Douglas County Real Estate Trends for December

Posted by Mark under Real Estate
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by Neil Hummel, Century 21

Greetings:

Douglas County is very fortunate to have the amenities that people are looking forward in locating here.  We have a great climate for growing a variety of produce, great location on the I-5 corridor, great medical facilities with Mercy Medical Center and the Veterans Hospital, located near great outdoor recreation with hunting and fishing, biking, and golf, and the lists go on.  However, what concerns me the most is that our population is aging with over ½ of those of us that live in Douglas County are over 55.  What that means is that we are losing our best and brightest  young people  who choose to move because of the lack of employment and limited opportunities, that we offer them.

We need to do something about this and in May 2012 our Umpqua Community College will be asking the homeowners of our area to pass a $40 million dollar bond levy that will be used to construct 3 new facilities.  This bond levy will cost the average home owner about $58 per year over a 25 year period and will offer a new Allied Health building, a Technology building and a south county facility which will provide our area with much needed jobs and training for our students now and for years to come.

As chairman of this campaign I am asking for your support because it will take all of us to work hard in our county to get our county rolling again.  We have a great opportunity to turn the tides of this very crippling economy by passage of this levy because it will have over a $200 million dollar impact on our local economy.  Also, the state of Oregon will provide a $8.5 million matching construction grant and with construction costs down plus this grant, we are afforded a golden opportunity to give our county residents hope for the future.   We are asking the property owners to invest into our future so we can stem the tide of losing our young people and improve our local economy.   This project is a win-win for our county. So please help us get out the message and vote for passage of this very important issue.  If you want more information on the levy or would like to help us, feel free to contact me.

As we compare November 2010 with November 2011, closed sales fell from 66 to 64.  Pending sales grew from 74 to 75 and new listings increased by 37.5% from 96 to 132.  Historically November is a slower month in Douglas County as far as real estate sales and our stats reflects that trend.  On a month to month basis, Douglas County showed declining sales activity when comparing the previous month of October 2011 with November 2011.  Closed sales decreased from 73 to 64 (-12.3%), and pending sales fell from 93 to 75 (-19.4%).  New listings saw a rise of +7.3%, up from 123 to 132.

When comparing November 2010 to November 2011, the average sales price dropped 6.0% ($165,700 v. $155,800). However,  a comparison of the month prior October 2011 to November, shows a +11.1% rise in the average sales ($140,200 v. $155,800).  The average sales year to date is down -2.0% ($155,600 v. $152,500).

We want to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.  Be sure to include all of Military troops and their families in your thoughts and prayers during this time for all that they do to help us enjoy our liberties.  God Bless all of you and your loved ones, and God Bless America.

 

 

December 15, 2011

Retail holiday sales forecast revised – upward

Posted by Mark under Business, Economy, Marketing, retail, Retail Trends
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For Immediate Release
Kathy Grannis (202) 783-7971 or grannisk@NRF.com
www.nrf.com/holidays

National Retail Federation Upgrades Holiday Forecast, Expects Sales to Rise 3.8 Percent to $469.1 Billion
-Strong November Sales, Expected December Spending Lead to Revision-

Washington, December 15, 2011 – With just ten days until Christmas, the National Retail Federation has revised its holiday forecast upward, expecting holiday sales to rise 3.8 percent this year to a record $469.1 billion. NRF’s initial forecast, announced on October 6, called for anticipated sales growth of 2.8 percent. While a 3.8 percent sales increase is considerably above the ten-year average sales increase of 2.6 percent, it is still lower than the 5.2 percent increase the retail industry saw last year.

“After strong sales reports in October and November, along with a successful Black Friday weekend, retailers are cautiously optimistic that this season will turn out better than initially expected, bringing added stability to our recovering economy at a time when America needs it most,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “However, a number of factors, including the debt crisis in Europe and continued political wrangling in Washington, could impact consumer spending this holiday season and into 2012.”

The forecast revision comes on the heels of two promising pieces of news. On Tuesday, NRF announced that retail industry sales for November rose 4.5 percent year-over-year. In addition, NRF’s most recent holiday survey found that the average American has completed far less of their holiday shopping than in previous years – an indication that many shoppers bought for themselves in November and have plenty of holiday shopping left to do.

“Consumer spending this holiday season has surpassed expectations, though many shoppers continue to stick to their budgets and buy only what they need,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.

As the world’s largest retail trade association and the voice of retail worldwide, NRF represents retailers of all types and sizes, including chain restaurants and industry partners, from the United States and more than 45 countries abroad. Retailers operate more than 3.6 million U.S. establishments that support one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.5 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation’s economy. NRF’s Retail Means Jobs campaign emphasizes the economic importance of retail and encourages policymakers to support a Jobs, Innovation and Consumer Value Agenda aimed at boosting economic growth and job creation. www.nrf.com.

 

December 11, 2011

Behind the hype – Who gets what news,where

Posted by Mark under Consumer research, Demographics, Media
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For those whose taste in facts runs to research, Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism is a great place to visit.

Traditional media’s engagement with new media tends to blur the lines as the landscape rapidly evolves and newspaper website continue in aggregate to be at the top of the list of where digital news visitors find their news. Separately, traditional media’s huge investment in original reporting remains the principal source for bloggers and new media sources.

The link above provides some rich statistical facts and here are some highlinghts:

  • Television news is number one for weather, breaking news and traffic
  • Newspapers are the number one source for community news, crime, taxes, local government, arts, culture, social services, zoning and development
  • Internet is tops for restaurants and local business; and ties with newspapers for housing, schools and jobs
  • Radio ties with television as tops for traffic

The survey dates from last January and it will be interesting to watch how these long-held news consumption habits evolve.

 

 

 

November 29, 2011

Douglas County employment trends

Posted by Mark under Uncategorized
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From Worksource Oregon

Latest Local Area Employment Data
Douglas County’s unemployment rate dropped to 13.4 percent in October compared with a revised 13.6 percent in September. The rate this October was 1.4 percentage points lower than the 14.8 percent recorded in October of last year. Douglas County had the forth highest seasonally adjusted county unemployment rate in the state. The number of unemployed dropped 47 in October and was 765 lower than in October 2010, at 5,519.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
In October, total nonfarm payroll employment rose 80 when an increase of 200 was expected on a seasonal basis. Total nonfarm employment declined 240, or 0.7 percent, compared with October of last year. Manufacturing dropped 60 jobs in October from a loss of 60 in wood products and an additional loss of 10 in other durable goods. These losses were  countered by a gain of 10 in nondurable goods.

 

November 28, 2011

Consumer confidence slowly rising In November

Posted by Mark under Business, Consumer research, Demographics, Economy, retail, Retail Trends
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November 23, 2011

Top 10 retail holiday trends for 2011

Posted by Mark under Business, Consumer research, Economy, retail, Retail Trends
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Consumers will spend more, shop more places, expect more, shop online more … and FedEx has hired 20,000 additional seasonal workers. Want more? Check out the Nation Retail Federations Retail Big Blog.

 

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